Introduction: Why Most Traders Will Miss The Next Altseason
Most traders will miss the next major altseason even if they are actively trading crypto every single day. This is not speculation. It is a pattern that has repeated in every cycle since altcoins became a meaningful part of the market.
Think back to the 2017 ICO mania when ETH ran from $10 to over $1400 and random tokens printed 50x gains in weeks. Or the early 2021 DeFi and NFT boom when Solana went from $2 to $260 and memecoins created millionaires overnight. In both cases, most retail traders arrived late, bought the top, and watched their portfolios collapse 80 to 95 percent in the aftermath.
The statistic that 90 of traders fail is not just a forex saying. In altseason terms, it translates directly: 90 of traders will be positioned in the wrong coins at the wrong time. They will chase yesterday’s pumps, use leverage to compensate for being late, and exit their winning trades too early while holding losing trades until zero. Most traders make the mistake of treating trading like gambling instead of a skill, and many beginners ignore practice and education. Most traders fail due to lack of proper planning, risk management, and emotional control. Developing the right mindset and emotional discipline is crucial for trading success.
This article will give you a concrete framework for joining the prepared 10 percent. Here is what you will learn:
- The actual sequence of capital rotation during altseasons and why understanding it is essential
- The specific reasons most traders miss every altseason despite being active in the market. Many traders fail because they lack a deep understanding of the markets they trade and the factors that drive price action.
- Macro and onchain signals that precede altseasons by months, not days
- How to build a written altseason playbook with sectors, position sizes, rotation rules, and exit criteria
- Practical tips for managing trading psychology when prices go parabolic
The Anatomy Of An Altseason: What Actually Happens
An altseason is not a random period when all coins magically go up together. It is a structured rotation of capital and narratives that follows a predictable sequence. Understanding this sequence is the difference between being in the 10 and becoming exit liquidity for smarter traders.
In late 2016 and early 2017, Bitcoin rallied first as the gateway asset. Dominance climbed above 85 percent. Then Ethereum woke up, and capital flowed into ETH as the secondary layer. By mid 2017, that capital rotated into ICO tokens and smaller altcoins. The pattern repeated in 2020 and 2021. Bitcoin dominance peaked above 70 percent in January 2021, then steadily declined to under 40 percent by May as DeFi, layer ones, gaming tokens, and eventually memecoins took turns outperforming.
Altseason is fundamentally a liquidity and narrative rotation. Fresh money enters Bitcoin first because it is perceived as the safest entry point. Once Bitcoin stalls or consolidates, that capital seeks higher returns in ETH, then large cap alts, then mid caps, and finally the most speculative micro caps and meme tokens. Each phase has different risk and reward characteristics.
The typical rotation order looks like this:
- Phase 1: Bitcoin dominance rises as fresh capital enters BTC
- Phase 2: ETH and major layer ones begin outperforming BTC, ETH/BTC ratio rises
- Phase 3: Mid cap altcoins in strong sectors like DeFi or gaming surge, dominance drops below 50 percent
- Phase 4: Small caps and memecoins go parabolic, dominance drops below 40 percent, retail euphoria peaks
It’s important to note that modern altseasons are often sector-specific, with capital flowing into particular narratives or sectors rather than lifting all coins together.
A popular approach is the “Barbell” strategy, which recommends allocating 70% of your portfolio to blue-chip altcoins and 30% to high-growth, smaller-cap projects. This helps balance risk and reward as capital rotates through different phases.
If you understand this sequence, you can position ahead of each rotation instead of reacting to price action that already happened. Some traders also diversify into other asset classes such as stocks to further manage risk and smooth out portfolio volatility.
Why 90 Of Traders Miss Every Altseason
Missing altseason is rarely about not knowing which altcoins exist. Many traders have watchlists full of tokens. The problem is timing, psychology, and poor risk management. Most beginners and even experienced traders repeat the same mistake each cycle, such as relying solely on indicators, skipping practice, poor risk management, overtrading, revenge trading, and misjudging entry and exit points.
The main reasons traders fail during altseason fall into predictable categories:
- Arriving late after mainstream media coverage and buying near the top
- Using leverage to compensate for missed early gains and getting liquidated
- Following narratives and hype instead of data and fundamentals
- Having no framework for rotating between sectors as the cycle evolves
- Making emotional trading decisions based on fear and greed rather than a solid trading plan
- A common mistake is overtrading and catching falling knives, which leads to significant losses. In fact, 90-95% of traders often lose money due to overtrading and catching falling knives.
The “90/90/90” pattern applies here as well. Most newcomers lose most of their trading account within their first 90 days of real exposure to altseason volatility. The market moves fast, and without preparation, even a good trade setup turns into a disaster. Trading in the wrong direction, especially with leverage, can quickly wipe out an account.
They Arrive Late And Exit Late
The pattern repeats every cycle. Traders ignore the market during accumulation phases like 2019 to 2020 or 2022 to 2023. They are busy with other things, skeptical after the last crash, or simply not paying attention. Then mainstream media covers huge gains. Bitcoin hits new highs. Coworkers start talking about crypto again.
By the time most traders aggressively buy small caps, the peak has often already formed. In May 2021, many people bought DOGE and SHIB after Elon Musk tweets and Saturday Night Live appearances. They bought low quality NFTs in late 2021 after the Beeple sale made headlines. In both cases, the easy money was already made.
Social media lag and emotional confirmation bias cause this pattern. People react to past price action instead of leading indicators. They see a coin up 500 percent and assume it will go another 500 percent. They ignore that the smart money positioned months earlier during boring, low volatility periods.
The takeaway is simple. Early boring positioning beats late exciting chasing every single time.
They Use Leverage To Compensate For Being Late
Traders who missed early gains often try to shortcut the process. They turn to perpetual futures and use 10x, 20x, or even higher leverage on platforms after price has already moved vertically. This is one of the number one reason traders lose money during altseason specifically.
Here is a concrete example. A trader sees an altcoin up 200 percent in a month and decides to go long with 20x leverage expecting another leg up. The position requires only a 5 percent move against them to get liquidated. During altseason, 5 percent intraday moves are completely normal. A healthy pullback that would be fine for spot holders wipes out the leveraged position entirely. It’s crucial to understand margin requirements in these scenarios to avoid overleveraging and to ensure you have enough margin to cover open positions and withstand market fluctuations.
Altseason volatility rewards patient spot holders who accumulated early. It punishes aggressive leveraged longs who try to compress months of gains into days. The same market moves that create generational wealth for the 10 create maximum loss events for overleveraged traders.
They Follow Narratives Not Data
During 2021, many traders bought any token labeled “DeFi,” “play to earn,” or “metaverse” without checking market cap, token unlock schedules, or actual liquidity. The narrative was enough. If a coin fit the trending theme, people assumed it would pump.
The 90 focus on hype keywords and screenshots of profits shared on social media. The 10 focus on actual data before committing capital:
- Fully diluted valuation compared to circulating market cap
- Token unlock schedules and potential selling pressure
- Actual usage metrics like total value locked, active addresses, or transaction volume
- Developer activity measured by GitHub commits
- Liquidity depth on exchanges and stablecoin pair availability
During altseason, narratives trend on X and Telegram first. But only a minority cross check onchain data before buying. This is why so many traders end up holding worthless tokens when the music stops. Over 80 percent of 2021 altcoins are now down 90 percent or more from their peaks.
They Have No Framework For Rotation
Many traders find one coin they believe in and ride it through the entire cycle. They experience the thrill of watching it go up, then the pain of watching it give back all gains and more. They never rotate.
In 2020 and 2021, capital moved systematically. Bitcoin led first. Then large cap DeFi tokens like AAVE and UNI outperformed. Then gaming and metaverse tokens like AXS had their moment. Then memecoins exploded. Traders who understood this rotation could take profits from one sector and redeploy into the next. Those without predefined rules stayed stuck, often in early cycle winners that became late cycle laggards.
The wrong way: Buy a DeFi token, watch it 5x, refuse to take profits, watch it drop 80 percent, then panic sell at the bottom.
The right way: Buy a DeFi token, take partial profits at 3x, rotate a portion into gaming tokens showing early strength, repeat the process, end the cycle in stablecoins with most gains preserved.
Macro And Onchain Signals Most Traders Ignore
The 10 pay attention to macro cycle signals and onchain data that often precede altseasons by months, not days. These are not secret indicators. They are freely available. Most traders simply do not monitor them consistently.
For the 2024 to 2025 cycle, several signals are particularly relevant:
- The April 2024 Bitcoin halving reducing new supply
- ETF inflows bringing institutional capital into the market
- Rising onchain activity on major layer twos like Arbitrum and Optimism
- Stablecoin supply growth indicating fresh capital entering the ecosystem
- Federal Reserve rate cuts potentially increasing liquidity across risk assets
The following subsections explain the specific signals every altseason focused trader should track.
Bitcoin And Ethereum Dominance As Early Warnings
Bitcoin dominance measures BTC’s share of total crypto market cap. Historically, dominance rises early in a cycle as fresh capital enters Bitcoin first. Then it stalls or drops as ETH and other majors begin outperforming.
In early 2021, BTC dominance peaked above 70 percent. By May 2021, it had dropped below 40 percent as altcoins exploded. Traders in the 10 watched this shift and used it as a signal to rotate from BTC heavy positions into altcoins.
The ETH/BTC ratio is equally important. When ETH starts outperforming BTC on this currency pair, it often signals that Phase 2 of the rotation has begun. Capital is moving from the safest asset into the next tier, and further rotation into smaller alts typically follows.
Watching these ratios daily is simple technical analysis that most traders ignore. Yet it provides early warning weeks before mainstream excitement kicks in.
Stablecoin Supply And Exchange Flows
Rising stablecoin supply and net inflows to exchanges often precede periods of higher speculative activity in altcoins. Stablecoins like USDT and USDC represent dry powder waiting to be deployed.
Through late 2020 and early 2021, total stablecoin market cap grew substantially before the first 2021 altseason peaked. The pattern makes sense. Fresh capital enters as stablecoins first, then gets deployed into BTC, then rotates into alts as traders seek higher returns.
Monitoring stablecoin market cap growth and exchange inflow data can alert you weeks before major moves happen. If stablecoin supply is flat or declining while prices pump, the rally may lack fresh capital to sustain it. If stablecoin supply is growing during consolidation, buying pressure may be building.
The takeaway: watch stablecoin flows as a leading indicator, not just price action as a lagging one.
Onchain Activity And Developer Metrics
Onchain metrics hint at where the next wave of capital will flow before prices reflect it. Rising active addresses, increasing transactions, growing total value locked in DeFi protocols, and bridging volume into specific chains all provide signals.
Consider how rising TVL on Ethereum DeFi protocols in mid 2020 preceded the DeFi summer that made AAVE, UNI, and others household names. Or how increased Solana usage appeared in onchain data before SOL’s late 2021 parabolic run.
Key onchain indicators every altseason focused trader should track:
- Total value locked in DeFi by chain
- Active addresses and daily transactions on major layer ones and layer twos
- Bridge volume showing capital moving between chains
- Developer activity measured by GitHub commits and protocol upgrades
- New wallet creation rates on emerging ecosystems
The 10 monitor these metrics months before mainstream attention arrives. They accumulate positions gradually during boring periods rather than chasing vertical moves.
Building An Altseason Playbook To Join The 10
Being in the 10 is about having a written playbook before altseason starts. The traders who consistently profit do not improvise when prices go parabolic. They execute a solid strategy they developed during quiet periods, using the right tools to effectively implement their plans. Successful traders often combine multiple analysis techniques to make informed decisions, rather than relying on a single approach. The 10% of successful traders treat trading as a business, focusing on high-probability setups and rotating capital from Bitcoin to fundamentally strong sectors.
Your altseason playbook should include these components:
- Sector selection: which themes and narratives you will focus on
- Coin filtering: objective criteria for choosing specific tokens within those sectors
- Risk limits: position size rules and maximum exposure per coin and per sector
- Rotation rules: predefined triggers for moving capital between BTC, ETH, majors, and smaller alts
- Exit criteria: specific profit targets and stop loss orders for managing open trades
Traders who had such frameworks in 2020 and 2021 could systematically profit from DeFi, layer one, and NFT rotations. Those without frameworks reacted emotionally, often making the wrong move at the wrong time.
Define Your Sectors And Themes Upfront
Before altseason arrives, choose 3 to 5 specific themes you will focus on. Trying to chase every narrative leads to overtrading, confusion, and poor decisions. Focused expertise beats scattered attention.
For the 2024 to 2025 cycle, potential themes include:
- Restaked ETH ecosystems like EigenLayer and liquid restaking tokens
- Real world asset protocols bringing traditional assets onchain
- Modular blockchain infrastructure including data availability layers
- AI and DePIN tokens with actual usage metrics
- Gaming and entertainment with sustainable economic models
Predefining themes limits distraction and helps you build genuine conviction. When a token pumps in a sector you have not researched, you can simply ignore it rather than FOMOing into something you do not understand.
Screen And Tier Your Altcoin List
Within each chosen sector, create a tiered list of coins based on objective criteria. This removes emotional decision making during fast market moves.
A simple three tier system works well:
- A tier: Large caps with proven track records, high liquidity, lower relative risk. Examples include ETH, SOL, LINK.
- B tier: Mid caps with strong fundamentals in your focus sectors, moderate liquidity. Examples include established DeFi blue chips or leading gaming tokens.
- C tier: Small caps with high potential but higher risk, limited liquidity, larger position sizing restrictions.
Filters for each tier should include:
- Market cap ranges appropriate for the tier
- Minimum daily trading volume and liquidity depth
- Token unlock schedules with no major unlocks imminent
- Audit status and team transparency
- Actual usage metrics relevant to the project
Set Position Sizes And Risk Per Trade
Successful traders use strict risk management rules to survive altseason volatility. Without predefined limits, emotions take over during mania phases.
Concrete rules to consider:
- Limit risk per single trade to 1 to 2 percent of total portfolio
- Cap total allocation to C tier high risk coins at 10 to 20 percent of portfolio
- Maintain at least 20 to 30 percent in BTC and stablecoins as a hedge throughout the cycle
- Never go all in on one trade regardless of conviction level
For a 10,000 dollar portfolio, this might look like:
- Maximum 100 to 200 dollars risk per position in C tier coins
- Maximum 2000 dollars total in C tier positions combined
- At least 2000 dollars always in BTC or stablecoins
- Remaining capital split between A tier and B tier positions
These numbers are examples. The key is defining your own position size limits based on your risk tolerance and writing them down before volatility spikes.
Create Rotation And Exit Rules Beforehand
Rotation rules define when you move capital between tiers and sectors. Exit rules define when you take profits or cut losing trades. Both must be written before altseason, not invented in the moment.
Sample rotation rules in plain English:
- When ETH outperforms BTC by more than 20 percent over four weeks, rotate 20 percent of BTC holdings into ETH and A tier altcoins
- When BTC dominance drops below 50 percent and the Altcoin Season Index rises above 75, begin scaling into B tier positions
- When memecoins and micro caps dominate social media and the Altcoin Season Index exceeds 80, begin taking profits on all positions and rotating back toward BTC and stablecoins
Sample exit rules:
- Take 25 percent profits at 2x initial investment
- Take another 25 percent at 3x
- Move stop loss to breakeven after 2x is reached
- Exit remaining position at 5x or when predefined bearish signals appear
These are examples. The point is having rules written down that you can execute without emotion when market moves happen fast.
Psychology And Discipline: Protecting Yourself In Mania Phases
Altseason profits are earned in rational preparation but lost in emotional execution. When prices go vertical and social media becomes euphoric, following a plan feels almost impossible. Every instinct screams to abandon discipline and chase the pump.
Trading psychology becomes the main reason many traders fail even with a good plan. Fear of missing quick profits causes premature entries. Greed prevents taking profits at rational levels. Attachment to coin “communities” makes selling feel like betrayal.
Mental traps to recognize during mania phases:
- Believing “this time is different” and abandoning exit rules
- Comparing your returns to anonymous screenshots showing 100x gains
- Feeling pressure from online communities to hold through obvious warning signs
- Revenge trading after missing a move or taking a loss
- Overtrading because the dopamine hit of constant action becomes addictive
Emotional control separates the 10 from the 90. The market does not care about your feelings, your bags, or your hope. It only cares about supply, demand, and liquidity flows.
Keeping a trading journal can help traders identify emotional patterns and improve decision-making. Traders should regularly review their trading performance to identify patterns and areas for improvement. Options trading is another strategic approach that can be used in certain market conditions, such as choppy or sideways markets, but it requires discipline and the right mindset.
Setting Profit Targets And Sticking To Them
The 10 predefine profit taking levels before prices pump. They decide in advance to take partial profits at 2x, 3x, and 5x instead of hoping for impossible numbers after social media becomes euphoric.
Consider a hypothetical example from the 2021 cycle:
- Initial buy: 1000 dollars in a mid cap DeFi token at 5 dollar price
- Price reaches 10 dollars (2x): Sell 250 dollars worth, recovering 25 percent of initial capital
- Price reaches 15 dollars (3x): Sell another 250 dollars worth
- Price reaches 25 dollars (5x): Sell remaining position or move trailing stop to 20 dollars
If the token eventually crashed 80 percent like many did, this trader preserved significant gains. The trader who held everything “waiting for 10x” likely gave it all back.
Using limit orders placed in advance reduces emotional interference. You decide the plan when calm and execute mechanically when prices move.
Avoiding Overtrading And Revenge Trading
Sharp intraday volatility during altseason tempts traders to jump in and out constantly. Every 10 percent move feels like a missed opportunity. This leads to overtrading, paying excessive fees, and making impulsive decisions based on minute by minute price action.
Revenge trading is particularly dangerous. After missing a big move or getting stopped out just before a rally, the temptation to immediately enter a larger position on the next coin is overwhelming. This is how one trade spirals into a sequence of losing trades that destroys a trading account.
Practical behavioral rules to develop discipline:
- Set a maximum number of new positions per week, perhaps 2 to 3
- Implement a 24 hour cool down after any losing trade before opening new positions
- Track every trade in a journal to identify emotional patterns
- Step away from the computer entirely during extremely volatile sessions if you feel the urge to act impulsively
Money management is ultimately about controlling yourself, not the market.
Managing Social Media And Community Noise
During peaks like early 2021, Twitter, Telegram, and Discord groups amplified hype to extreme levels. Every coin had a devoted community convinced their token would 100x. Dissent was punished. Skeptics were mocked or banned.
These echo chambers make it psychologically difficult to take profits or rotate out of a position. Selling feels like abandoning the “family.” Expressing doubt invites attacks. Traders ignore clear exit signals because the community pressure to “stay strong” overwhelms their rational trading plan.
Specific habits to protect yourself:
- Mute price related alerts during major moves to reduce reactive decisions
- Limit time in chat groups when volatility spikes
- Follow a small number of data focused accounts rather than hype influencers
- Remember that community members are not fiduciaries. They often benefit if you hold while they sell.
The market, not the community, ultimately determines the price. When the cycle turns, confidence in the group will not prevent an 80 percent drawdown.
Record-Keeping And Performance Analysis: The Overlooked Edge
One of the most overlooked reasons why 90 of traders fail is the lack of disciplined record-keeping and performance analysis. While many traders obsess over finding the perfect trading strategies or the next big market move, they neglect the simple act of tracking their own trades. This oversight is a major contributor to why most traders lose money and struggle to achieve consistent profitability in the long run.
Effective record-keeping is more than just jotting down a few notes. It means maintaining a detailed trading journal that documents every trade—entry and exit points, position size, stop loss orders, profit or loss, and even the emotions felt during the trade. By capturing this data, traders gain a clear picture of their trading behavior, allowing them to spot common pitfalls such as overtrading, poor risk management, or emotional trading decisions.
Performance analysis transforms raw data into actionable insights. By regularly reviewing your trading journal, you can calculate key metrics like win-loss ratio, average profit per trade, and maximum loss. This process reveals patterns—maybe you’re risking too much on a single trade, or perhaps your losing trades are the result of abandoning your trading plan under stress. Many traders fail because they don’t realize these tendencies until it’s too late, leading to repeated mistakes and unnecessary losses.
A solid trading plan is only as effective as your ability to follow and refine it. By analyzing your trade records, you can identify where your risk management rules need tightening—perhaps by adjusting your position size, setting stricter stop loss orders, or capping your maximum loss per day. This level of self-awareness and discipline is what separates successful traders from the majority who lose money due to poor risk management and lack of control.
Losing trades are inevitable, but they are also your best teachers. Instead of ignoring or rationalizing losses, use your trading journal to dissect what went wrong. Did you deviate from your plan? Was your technical analysis flawed, or did fear and greed cloud your judgment? By confronting these questions honestly, you can develop better strategies and improve your emotional control, turning setbacks into stepping stones for trading success.
Technical analysis remains a powerful tool, but its effectiveness is multiplied when combined with rigorous record-keeping and performance review. It’s not enough to spot a promising trade setup; you must also manage your risk, control your emotions, and learn from every outcome. This holistic approach is the foundation of a solid trading plan and the key to achieving consistent profitability.
Here are some practical tips to give yourself the overlooked edge:
- Keep a detailed trading journal: Record every trade, including entry/exit, position size, stop loss, profit/loss, and your emotional state.
- Use spreadsheets or trading software: Calculate key metrics like win-loss ratio, average profit per trade, and maximum drawdown to track your progress.
- Review your trades regularly: Set aside time each week to analyze your records, identify patterns, and refine your trading strategies.
- Enforce strict risk management rules: Limit your maximum loss per trade, set daily stop-loss limits, and adjust position sizes based on your risk tolerance.
- Integrate technical analysis with performance review: Use your journal to evaluate which trade setups work best for you and which lead to losing trades.
- Develop emotional control: Note your feelings before, during, and after trades to spot when fear or greed is influencing your decisions.
By making record-keeping and performance analysis a core part of your trading routine, you gain the self-awareness and discipline that most traders lack. This is the real edge in trading—using data, not just intuition, to improve your strategies and risk management over time. Remember, 90 of traders fail because they ignore these fundamentals. If you want to be in the 10 who achieve trading success, start tracking, analyzing, and refining every aspect of your trading today.
Practical Checklist: How To Be In The 10 For The Next Altseason
This checklist summarizes everything above into actionable items you can print or save. Translate these into your own written plan with specific coins, numbers, and dates.
Preparation now, before altseason heats up:
- Choose 3 to 5 sectors or themes you will focus on
- Create a tiered coin list with A tier, B tier, and C tier using objective filters
- Write position size rules including maximum risk per trade and maximum exposure per tier
- Define rotation triggers based on dominance charts and Altcoin Season Index thresholds
- Set profit taking levels for each tier, such as 2x, 3x, 5x
- Establish stop loss orders or trailing stop rules for each position
- Reduce social media noise by curating who you follow
Signals to monitor throughout the cycle:
- Bitcoin dominance chart, watching for stalls below 55 percent
- ETH/BTC ratio, watching for sustained uptrend
- Altcoin Season Index, watching for readings above 75
- Stablecoin market cap and exchange inflow data
- Onchain metrics for your focus sectors including TVL and active addresses
Execution rules during the run:
- Enter positions according to your tiered plan, not random pumps
- Take partial profits at predefined levels using limit orders
- Rotate capital according to your written rules as dominance shifts
- Track every trade in a journal with entry reason and exit reason
- Stick to your maximum trades per week rule to avoid overtrading
Capital preservation as the cycle matures:
- Begin scaling to stablecoins when memecoins and micro caps dominate attention
- Tighten trailing stops on remaining positions
- Ignore community pressure to hold through obvious distribution phases
- Prioritize preserving gains over chasing the last 20 percent of upside
This checklist is relevant for the post 2024 halving environment. Many analysts expect the 2024 to 2025 window to produce aggressive altcoin cycles. Preparation now determines which side of the 90/10 split you end up on.
Conclusion: Prepare Now Or Pay Later
Altseasons do not reward the best predictions. They reward the best preparation and execution. The trader who called the exact top but had no plan loses to the trader with a mediocre prediction but excellent risk control and discipline.
The 90 will continue repeating the same mistakes from 2017 and 2021. They will arrive late, use excessive leverage, follow hype over data, hold too long, and sell at the worst possible time. They will blame the market, blame influencers, blame luck. But the pattern is predictable, and the wrong things they do are always the same.
The prepared 10 treat altseason as a structured opportunity with clear rules, not a casino with random outcomes. They accept that they cannot capture every gain. They focus on consistent profitability over the long run rather than maximum returns on one trade. They develop a plan, write it down, and execute it with discipline when emotions run highest.
Set aside time this weekend to draft your altseason playbook. Define your sectors. Choose your tools. Write your rotation and exit rules. Put specific numbers next to each decision. When the market starts moving fast, you will not have time to think clearly. The traders who succeed are those who did the thinking beforehand.
The next altseason is coming. The only question is whether you will be in the 10 or the 90.





